Prices of gold (XAU) rise above $5,000 as a result of lower US Treasury yields and softer inflation data. Resilient job growth, sticky core inflation, and falling rates, in my opinion, constitute a mixed macroenvironment that sets the stage for a period of consolidation. The precious metals industry views these consolidations as encouraging. In order to predict the next gold move, this article provides technical price structure, labor market developments, Fed policy predictions, and cross-market indications.
Recent US employment data indicates a robust macroenvironment that influences monetary policy going forward. As can be seen in the chart below, the economy created 130,000 new jobs, more than the 70,000 predicted.
These employment increases were not uniform, either, as 137,000 new jobs were created by the private health and education sectors alone. Despite the power of the headlines, this concentration raises questions about the level of labor demand and suggests that some economies are weak.
The graphic below illustrates how the unemployment rate was lowered to 4.3%. However, due to unfavorable weather, the home survey response rate dropped to 64.3%. This raises some doubts regarding the true state of the labor market.
However, as the data below illustrates, average hourly wages rose by 0.4% in January. This corresponds to a robust 4.8% annualized rate. These numbers demonstrate that there are still underlying wage pressures that may keep core inflation sticky because they haven’t completely subsided.
However, over the previous 12 months, the overall weekly hours worked showed a lesser increase trend of just 1.0%. The trend is slowing, but it is gradually rebounding from its top in April 2021, according to the chart below.
Nonresidential building for AI data centers was mostly responsible for the growth in employment in cyclical sectors in January 2026. This rise implies that investment themes, not cyclical boom, are what propel employment growth.
